Musing about election year..

Permas Jaya is basically a battle ground between PAS and UMNO. Basically, we all know that UMNO is expected to win-Johor is a BN stronghold after all.

But if I could vote, I would vote…

…PAS! Just for the sheer audacity of it. But seriously, what is preventing a Christian from voting a Muslim MP? Come to think of it, having separate lines for men and women at the checkout counter is not as ‘bad’ as the mainstream media would insinuate it to be. Nowadays, the younger PAS MPs are not that much more ‘radical’ than your average UMNO MP.

I recall reading members of some PAS youth wing helped keep order during the BERSIH rally last year. They helped control the crowd, watch out for trouble makers and even….pick up the trash. Definately did a better job than the police, thank you very much!

(The younger me would gall at what I’m writing now, but that’s the point, I’m not my younger me anymore.)

I think that statements like,”Chinese will not vote for PAS.” will soon be used in history textbooks and not in tomorrow’s political analysis. If the younger PAS leaders can show that the brand of Islam they believe in can govern a country, votes will come. These are changing times in Malaysia-tomorrow’s Malaysia votes for the party that delivers…actually delivers, and outward trappings-race, religion, secular, liberal, conservative, right or left counts for less.

In many ways we are like America. Cynicism in politics, burdened by cliche’s we cannot seem to go beyond (BN vs Opposition, Republican vs Democrats), crime and leaders who refuse to see their mistakes. (Bush’s war in Iraq compares with Badawi’s war on corruption although arguably, GW Bush seems to have more success.)

You may never know, but 8/3/08 may be history in the making. Much like November is America’s turn to make history.

(I give my predictions for the American presidential elections: Obama will win the Democratic nomination but lose the White House to John McCain. Reason: Policy-wise Clinton and Obama are almost the same, but Obama’s age and charisma give him the final edge. However, Americans generally vote with their heads, not with their emotions. In my reckoning, McCain’s policies may actually be more workable than Obama’s liberal ideals. The fact that he (McCain) has had past clashes with the extreme right shows that he is flexible-a quality not to be confused with complicity. Anyone want to take that bet with me?)

Malaysia leh? BN retains 2/3 majority, DAP retains traditional power bases, PKR and PAS biggest gainers. Kelantan remains with PAS, Kedah and Terengganu falls to PAS. Penang (sorry to say) will still go to BN, and UMNO will make serious inroads there. Biggest losers will be MCA and MIC-which is a good thing actually, they will be forced to evaluate their cosiness with UMNO and hopefully evem consider pulling out of BN.

I’m not too concerned with UMNO solidifying their grip on power. They don’t have the full Malay support they claim to have and since the opposition will gain plenty more seats this time round, they have less chance of bullying their way in Parliament any longer. Although Badawi will still become PM, his influence has been irreversibly damaged. Who cares whether KJ wins in Rembau (it’s safe, and hence insignificant) or not, his father-in-law’s days are numbered. I expect Najib to take over by the next term (2013)-he has been in the papers a lot hasn’t he?

I’m post dating this post 9/3/08 so that it stays on top. Let’s see how accurate my predictions are.